Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range or possibly higher in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend and Lubbock areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light winds could increase the daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the Texas Panhandle from the north today. Gusty conditions associated with this frontal boundary may generate patchy blowing dust through portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Additionally, light density residual smoke associated with seasonal fires across the Central U.S. was observed over portions of the North Central Texas and the Texas Panhandle, however the intensity and duration of any possible suspended dust and the residual smoke are not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the "Good" range throughout the majority of the regions, which includes the Amarillo and Lubbock areas.

Southerly winds are continuing to transport elevated relative humidity levels out of the Gulf as well as moderate to high density residual smoke from ongoing seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula over most of the state with the exception of Far West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The aforementioned light density residual smoke from seasonal fires across the Central U.S. may contribute fine particulate matter over portions of North Central Texas. Overall, the density and coverage of the residual smoke plumes may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and to the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI may also reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area.

Light morning winds may limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion of urban fine particulate matter long enough at the surface in portions of Far West Texas to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Model guidance continues to indicate that southerly winds will continue to transport elevated relative humidity levels out of the Gulf as well as moderate to high density residual smoke from seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula over the majority of Texas with the exception of the Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas. Lighter density residual smoke from seasonal fires across the Central U.S. may continue to contribute slightly elevated fine particulate matter over portions of North Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and the eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Bryan-College Station areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI may also reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Midland-Odessa areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds over portions of Far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Newer model guidance suggests that moderate to heavy residual smoke from seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula may continue to filter and linger at varying intensities across the majority of the state with the exception of Far West Texas and the Upper Texas Panhandle. Southerly winds will continue advecting elevated relative humidity levels across the southern half of the state, ahead of the aforementioned cold front, however scattered rain showers may help wash-out some of the fine particulate matter as well. Meanwhile, depending on the amount of seasonal fires across the Central U.S., light density residual smoke may continue to contribute slightly elevated fine particulate matter over portions of North Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and the Texas Panhandle. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and El Paso areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light morning winds over portions of Far West Texas may be enough to increase the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Northerly windflow is expected to develop and help to begin pushing the moderate to heavy residual smoke from seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula out of the state. The heavier density residual smoke may still linger over Deep South Texas, the coastal bend of Texas, and portions of Southeast Texas with lighter amounts over South Central Texas and the Permian Basin. Slightly elevated relative humidity levels may continue to contribute towards elevating PM2.5 levels over South Texas, the coastal bend of Texas, and portions of Southeast Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Big Bend, Beaumont-Port Arthur, and Bryan-College Station areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere, moderate winds, cool to mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.